Pending home sales rose in January, and have been above year-ago levels for the past 21 months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. There were healthy monthly gains in all regions but the West, which is constrained by limited inventory but was slightly improved.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 4.5 percent to 105.9 in January from a downwardly revised 101.3 in December and is 9.5 percent above January 2012 when it was 96.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The January index is the highest reading since April 2010 when it hit 110.9, just before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Aside from spikes induced by the tax credits, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when it reached 107.9.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said inventory is the key to this year’s housing market. “Favorable affordability conditions and job growth have unleashed a pent-up demand. Most areas are drawing down housing inventory, which has shifted the supply/demand balance to sellers in much of the country. It’s also why we’re experiencing the strongest price growth in more than seven years,” he says.

“Over the near term, rising contract activity means higher home sales, but total sales for the year are expected to rise less than in 2012, while home prices are projected to rise more strongly because of inventory shortages,” Yun says.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 8.2 percent to 84.8 in January and is 10.5 percent higher than January 2012. In the Midwest the index increased 4.5 percent to 105.0 in January and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent to an index of 119.3 in January and are 11.3 percent higher January 2012. In the West the index edged up 0.1 percent in January to 102.1 but is 1.5 percent below a year ago.

Yun expects approximately 5.0 million existing-home sales this year. However, price growth could exceed a 7 percent gain projected for 2013 if inventory supplies remain low. Previously, NAR had expected 5.1 million existing-home sales in 2013, while prices were forecast to rise 5.5 to 6.0 percent.

Mike Spruell
Realtor®/Broker/ePRO
The Lake Norman Homes Team
Southern Homes Elite
www.LakeNormanRealEstate.pro
866-LakeNorman
704-907-7907

By Pete Bakel

Although the economy seems to be transitioning to a slightly stronger growth path, unresolved fiscal policy decisions pose significant headwinds in early 2013, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group. Increased taxes and reduced government spending will keep growth at a subdued pace in the first half of the year before activity picks up in the second half. Net exports also are expected to create a drag as Europe remains in recession and U.S. export growth tries to bounce back from a slowdown in late 2012.

On the more positive side, the improving performance of the housing market is expected to continue through 2013. Boosted by strengthening home prices, which may incite more potential buyers to enter the market, housing should contribute to GDP on a growing basis and help to counteract the fiscal headwinds. Other primary growth drivers will include consumer spending, manufacturing, and business capital investment.

However, consumer spending growth is likely to weaken somewhat in the first half of the year, as tax hikes take a toll on Americans’ income. Overall, economic growth is expected to come in at 2.0 percent for all of 2013, in line with average growth since the recovery began more than three years ago, assuming only part of the government sequestration will occur this year.

“The question mark surrounding potential tax increases and government spending cuts produces significant economic uncertainty,” says Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “Our February forecast accounts for a modified version of sequestration unfolding in 2013, which we expect will result in less fiscal constraint – roughly a 0.2 percentage point drag. Our outlook is bolstered by the employment picture, which is trending better than previously reported, as well as the momentum in manufacturing and energy production. We also expect the housing recovery to broaden this year. However, the degree to which these drivers will serve to offset the headwinds from ongoing and forthcoming fiscal contraction is still to be determined.”

For an audio synopsis of the February 2013 Economic Outlook, listen to the podcast on the Economic & Strategic Research site at www.fanniemae.com. Visit the site to read the full February 2013 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary.

For more information, visit www.fanniemae.com.

Mike Spruell
Realtor®/Broker/ePRO
The Lake Norman Homes Team
Southern Homes Elite
www.LakeNormanRealEstate.pro
866-LakeNorman
704-907-7907